Nate Silver's polling averages look good there.

Posted on September 15, 2026 at 03:50:39 PM by GritsGoBlue

Senate polling update, per Nate Silver:

ALASKA 🔵 +1.1%
FLORIDA 🔴 +5.4%
GEORGIA 🔵 +9.0%
IOWA 🔵 +1.2%
KANSAS 🔴 +3.6%
MAINE 🔵 +4.0%
MICHIGAN 🔵 +2.9%
MINNESOTA 🔵 +4.8%
NORTH CAROLINA 🔵 +8.7%
NEBRASKA 🟡 +2.3%
NEW HAMPSHIRE 🔵 +6.3%
OHIO 🔵 +4.0%
TEXAS 🔵 +2.4%

Generic Ballot: 🔵 +8.0%
— Nathan Goldwag (@goldwagnathan.bsky.social) September 14, 2026 at 3:45 PM

The big takeaway here is that AES is under-performing substantially. He's doing worse than Sherrod Brown in Ohio (a redder state) and barely better than Talarico in Texas (a much redder state). He's 5-6 points behind the candidates in the comparable purple states (Georgia and North Carolina). I'm sure that this is somehow the DNC's fault.

Back to the board

Thread:

What’s the deal with the D senate candidate in NH? Cook just moved it to toss up from Lean D. Cook has been more conservative on Dem’s chances as a whole, but the polling has bee tightening. How could a D blow this race with the current national environment?* - By crumbs September 15, 2026 at 03:32:59 PM
- Pappas is milquetoast and has very little ability to push a “change” message - By brick September 15, 2026 at 05:09:19 PM
- On recent podcast mike Murphy disclosed he donated to sununu and argued it was better for dems to only have 49 senate seats. A never trumper who still doesn't get it in year 11* - By chiwalker September 15, 2026 at 04:17:34 PM
- Sununu is popular there and state gov. is R* - By Dunder September 15, 2026 at 03:53:13 PM
  - Sure, but he also went from somewhat Never Trumper to a complete bootlicker in ‘24. He sounded extremely pathetic explaining away Jan 6.* - By crumbs September 15, 2026 at 04:04:06 PM
- Nate Silver's polling averages look good there. - By GritsGoBlue September 15, 2026 at 03:50:39 PM
  - I'm mostly guessing, but a good part of that may be the loss of Jewish votes. I bekeivjews of voting age in michiganthere OrtRe: Nate Silver's polling averages look good there. - By onb September 15, 2026 at 04:18:17 PM
    - Jews? In New Hampshire?* - By tem September 15, 2026 at 06:21:23 PM
  - Why do you think he is underperforming? How might the DNC help?* - By bluejohn September 15, 2026 at 04:03:53 PM
    - I think he's underperforming because he's not an especially good candidate. - By GritsGoBlue September 15, 2026 at 04:52:12 PM
  - I think AES will end up okay in the end. One of the Nate’s said that he’d have to be a historically bad candidate to lose in thos environment. He doesn’t appear to be that bad.* - By crumbs September 15, 2026 at 04:00:24 PM
    - Tucker backing AES is a good indictor of our insane politics at the moment. Tucker has been AIPAC pilled* - By Daytripper September 15, 2026 at 04:01:43 PM
- Maybe they’re buying into his “promise” of a $5K dividend check* - By AuntLilly September 15, 2026 at 03:41:02 PM
  - How dumb can you be? The GOP could do this right now if they wanted to. They are in power, right now. Also, he already promised DOGE and Tariff checks. HOW DUMB CAN YOU BE?* - By gbmcq September 15, 2026 at 03:44:21 PM
    - I find if you pay upfront often times the work doesn't get done* - By chiwalker September 15, 2026 at 04:19:32 PM
    - Reminder: Trump won a second term partially because he promised to stop inflation, reduce prices, and end the Ukraine war on day one.* - By Bender September 15, 2026 at 04:08:12 PM
      - Katie Wilson our mayor promised 1000 shelter beds a year. Many believed her - By Daytripper September 15, 2026 at 04:09:43 PM
    - Unfortunately, there are more gullible people than most of us realize. The next few months are going to seem like a lifetime. You know there will be hijinks through January 3 if Dems flip either chamber* - By AuntLilly September 15, 2026 at 03:54:04 PM
- In that state? Hopefully he's got the requisite "don't tread on me" bullshit* - By Daytripper September 15, 2026 at 03:34:07 PM

The Victors

Nate Silver's polling averages look good there.