The Victors

I'd add rising property values, with commensurate increase in property tax, is a factor as well.

Our building was built in, I think 2019. I don't know that ins and outs of costs, leverage, possible refi, etc. for it but it definitely has substantially increased in value. When we met with the landlord a couple weeks ago, he was almost apologetic about raising our rent (80%!) but said "we've just got to earn a better return on the building." I can't reallt argue with that.

Beyond just that dynamic, minimum wage was $14.49 an hour when they built out the Taphouse space in 2022. Now it is $19.13/hr. It will go higher in January. (Part of that increase is the city of Bellingham deciding that Bellingham businesses would pay the state rate plus $2/hr in 2025. We have about 500 hours a month of labor cost, do the math.

Sales tax has gone up. B&O tax has gone up. Insurance has gone up. And, finally, COGS has gone up. Food prices are up 60% in the last five years. Everything filters out from the wholesalers, distributors, and owners to the people running hte bar and trying to make a profit on an $8 beer.

Places are closing left and right around here and IMO it will only get worse as people come out of multiyear leases.