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Posted on August 12, 2026 at 08:30:01 AM by ftb (edited August 12, 2026 at 08:58:37 AM)

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ingredients-coming-together-us-financial-133403569.html

The US is absolutely heading for a financial crisis and has been since the Bush tax cuts. But since it can be avoided by very simple (painful) steps -- curb entitlements or raise taxes or pay higher yields -- it's largely discounted by markets and hard to time. US net wealth was $60 trillion in 2010 and $167 trillion in 2025 - we can pay for our absurd deficits. It would be easier if entititlements were reined in, taxes were higher, and we stopped frightening foreign bond buyers, but we can do it regardless.

We're seeing the likely medium term outcome now - executives and legislatures increasingly boxed in and unpopular regardless of political orientation. Also true elsewhere. To get off this path requires either politically difficult reform / real leadership (ha ha) or a shock considerably larger than claims of rigged midterms. There's no economic successor, giving us more time to clean up but also less incentive to. A major war -- doesn't have to be started by us -- would give us a chance to renew or fold in.

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