OK, but I believe our SP+ to be understated and IU to be overstated for example. There is no current year data to simply accept preseason SP+. You can if you want but that is part of why you have angst on something that is has no real data yet...

Posted on August 13, 2026 at 10:54:53 AM by Rich

Our reg season SP defense last year was 12th (15th after the bowl). Is it better than 12 this year? Most ppl wanted Hill over Wink, and we probably have more talent on defense overall with the additions of Snowden, JHD, Bracy and the likely improvement of Hill, Earls, Pierce and the health of Moore. Our offense was in the 40s or 50s as I recall; it should be much improved. We are going to be a good team. Other teams will also be better or worse than early SP.

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Thread:

+148 for over 8.5 wins, -184 for under 8.5 wins. Basically 38% chance of 9 wins or higher, 62% chance of 8 wins or lower. (m) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:45:20 AM
- I read this as injuries. If healthy, I'd put it at more like 58-42 in our favor. But, yeah, Bryce misses the "wrong" 2 games and here we are.* - By ftb August 13, 2026 at 10:54:54 AM
- How does that simulation work? What are its assumptions? You are putting a lot of value in worthless preseason estimates. Enjoy the season* - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:46:39 AM
  - Read the Connelly article that I linked below. - By GritsGoBlue August 13, 2026 at 11:12:22 AM
  - Agree. I trust my gut over suede’s stupid computer projections* - By Poster P August 13, 2026 at 10:50:48 AM
  - Take two teams' SP+, take the difference to get a forecast line (after accounting for HFA)l, convert that to win probability, run Monte Carlo. Simple. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:47:39 AM
    - OK, but I believe our SP+ to be understated and IU to be overstated for example. There is no current year data to simply accept preseason SP+. You can if you want but that is part of why you have angst on something that is has no real data yet... - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:54:53 AM
      - I tend to have the same skepticism on IU, but looks like Vegas has them at O/U 10.5, which seems consistent (without running a MC) with their SP+ and schedule.* - By LewisBullox August 13, 2026 at 11:05:18 AM
        
        Yep, looks like Vegas has the under 10.5 wins a little more likely, which aligns with SP+. Here's the run card for IU from my simulator. (m) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 11:25:30 AM
        
        Looks tidy to me. I'm interested in extending your approach to do a complete Vegas corrected SP+. - By LewisBullox August 13, 2026 at 11:46:35 AM
        
        That would be really cool - are you visualizing a bunch of full FBS simulation runs with SP+ drift until the distribution of wins matches the Vegas win total over/under weighted to odds? (m) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 11:53:32 AM
        
        Yeah take SP+, calculate expected wins for each team, compare vs. Vegas (ideally with wagered money corrections not just raw O/U like you were doing) - By LewisBullox August 13, 2026 at 12:06:57 PM
        
        Love that approach, super curious to see it. The SP+ drift-informed-by-win distribution had a few interesting takeaways. (m) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 12:19:48 PM
      - I do this exercise precisely because there's no angst. I'm setting my own expectations properly. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:55:38 AM
        
        You have angst my friend. Great teams win games.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 11:45:45 AM
  - Believe he's adjusting it to match Vegas* - By LewisBullox August 13, 2026 at 10:47:32 AM
    - Exactly. This takes the SP+ universe of power ratings and then back solves for what we would need to be in order to match it. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:48:22 AM
      - At this point of the year, it's just playing with numbers* - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:49:05 AM
        
        Whitt is going to field an extremely improved team but ppl are going to call him worse than Sherrone because 9 > 8 * - By Nikos August 13, 2026 at 10:52:57 AM
        
        That would only make sense if we are (again) repeatedly uncompetitive.* - By ftb August 13, 2026 at 10:55:50 AM
        
        I'll copy and paste what I said last night. (m) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:50:04 AM
        
        It starts with beating OU. OU was 6-6 in 2024 and leveraged themselves into the playoffs by beating Michigan on their home field. - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:57:19 AM
- 12 wins. Lock it* - By Poster P August 13, 2026 at 10:46:03 AM

The Victors

OK, but I believe our SP+ to be understated and IU to be overstated for example. There is no current year data to simply accept preseason SP+. You can if you want but that is part of why you have angst on something that is has no real data yet...