I said this to Trev but I think if Michigan is being significantly underrated by preszn metrics, it could be as simple as the special teams measurement

Posted on August 19, 2026 at 05:06:29 PM by Nikos

right now Michigan is projected 113th -- extremely atrocious. a full -0.5.

the average ST value in the SP+ top 20 is +0.16. Michigan's −0.5 is the worst special teams projection of any top-20 team. Michigan is carrying a ~0.66-point anchor relative to a typical contender.

Decent ST (+0.25): 17.75 passes Alabama (17.6) and USC (17.7) and suddenly Michigan is 12th.

The ST correction alone (−0.5 → +0.25) is worth more than the entire projected margin in the Oklahoma game.

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Thread:

I said this to Trev but I think if Michigan is being significantly underrated by preszn metrics, it could be as simple as the special teams measurement - By Nikos August 19, 2026 at 05:06:29 PM
- would that change their projected W/L record by much (if anything)? - By DoctorD August 19, 2026 at 05:52:44 PM
  - No, barely. Even adding 7 whole points to SP+ barely improves the W/L - By Nikos August 19, 2026 at 05:59:47 PM
    - Re: No, barely. Even adding 7 whole points to SP+ barely improves the W/L - By suede August 19, 2026 at 06:21:02 PM
      - kinda nice to start the season knowing you'll sleepwalk to the playoffs* - By 6p August 19, 2026 at 06:28:44 PM
- interesting* - By 6p August 19, 2026 at 05:24:24 PM
- Loved your charts and as I listened further in, I think we agree on 2015 but your concern is the schedule will cause us not to get to the 9 or 10 wins. Where I question the SP vis a vis the charts - By Rich August 19, 2026 at 05:11:42 PM
  - I think they will define the szn. OU Iowa and PSU. especially Iowa and PSU as conference games - By Nikos August 19, 2026 at 05:21:30 PM
    - Re: I think they will define the szn. OU Iowa and PSU. especially Iowa and PSU as conference games - By ameriKa August 19, 2026 at 05:40:08 PM

The Victors

I said this to Trev but I think if Michigan is being significantly underrated by preszn metrics, it could be as simple as the special teams measurement