Um . . . this statistic is quite a bit more disturbing than its framing

Posted on August 25, 2026 at 10:10:28 AM by Paul

"Researchers considered every former N.F.L. player who died from 2016 to 2021. There were 878. Some died in their 20s, some in their 80s, most in between.

The study’s main finding was simple math: At least 215 of those 878 former players — 24.5 percent — had C.T.E.

The actual prevalence could be far higher. The roughly 25 percent rate does not consider the 643 brains that were not examined. Some of those, maybe many of them, likely had C.T.E. too."

I'm but a simple country fake lawyer, but don't the maths say that 215 of the 235 brains that were examined had CTE? Which is 91.4%, not 25%. I realize there's a selection bias here in which players' brains get autopsied, but the "at least 25%" figure is almost surely a wild underestimate.

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Um . . . this statistic is quite a bit more disturbing than its framing - By Paul August 25, 2026 at 10:10:28 AM
- Yes. The study found that somewhere between 19% and 99% of players had CTE - By ny1995 August 25, 2026 at 10:47:03 AM
  - Agreed, and the paper explicitly mentions the potential for selection bias - By Ypsi August 25, 2026 at 11:05:18 AM
    - I wouldn't expect them to speculate, but holy shit. Playing w/ the numbers, to hit various overall % levels....(m) - By LKLIII August 25, 2026 at 11:36:50 AM
      - Prevalence of CTE in the general population looks to be <1% - By Ypsi August 25, 2026 at 11:56:56 AM
- definitely massive selection bias, but also likely way more than 24% overall* - By DoctorD August 25, 2026 at 10:24:16 AM
- If CTE is bad among football players, imagine boxers.* - By MasterBates August 25, 2026 at 10:17:08 AM
- There are more cases because there’s more testing! - Trump* - By cp August 25, 2026 at 10:16:42 AM
  - Jesus, totally forgot that one.* - By crumbs August 25, 2026 at 10:24:13 AM

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Um . . . this statistic is quite a bit more disturbing than its framing