The Victors

The risk of these marquee non-conference games outweighs the reward. While we all love watching these games, the math doesn't favor them under the current 12-team system if you play in the B1G or SEC. If you play in the B1G or SEC, you don't know your schedule when you set up these blockbuster non-conference games.

This year, if Texas dropped the OSU game, their playoff runway was narrow. They could lose only one of Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU, and Texas A&M. Imagine if they also played Bama or Georgia this year. Notice at the end of the excerpt below that Texas is reconsidering future ND games.

ND, on the other hand, plays a shit schedule and is almost assured a playoff spot. I think last year was an aberration because ND lost both non-body-bag games.

I love the great early-season non-conference games, but not at the risk. Expand the CFB playoff.

An excerpt from THE ATHLETIC:


Texas’ Playoff hopes have room for error now. Even with a demanding SEC schedule still to come, including games against No. 18 Tennessee, No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 8 LSU and No. 10 Texas A&M, the Longhorns can lose a game or two and still make the field.

That is why more teams added marquee nonconference games when it was clear the CFP was going to expand to 12. It helps attendance and the upside is massive.

“We could be like other teams and play Jones Junior High and win 66-0,” Sarkisian said. “I don’t know what that does for us. Tonight we found out that we can (win big games).”

Sarkisian confirmed two weeks ago that next year’s Michigan game is on, which is a return trip to Austin for the 2024 game. But Sarkisian has been less committed to Texas’ games against Notre Dame in 2028 and 2029. Even athletic director Chris Del Conte, who has stood stronger behind the marquee matchups, said earlier this month he wasn’t fully sure if the Longhorns would stick with it.

Saturday night’s win against Ohio State was a reminder of why these games need to keep happening.