Thus creating the biggest differential to the Pythag predictive run diff formula that I can remember

Posted on September 14, 2026 at 08:32:10 AM by Rich

I am sure there are bigger ones but they are -12. Usually 80-90 percent of teams are within 3-4 games of the predicted record.

In 2024, Tigers were +1. Predicted was 85. They won 86.
In 2025, Tigers were -1. Predicted was 88. They won 87.

This year their predicted record is 82 wins (with 13 games to go). They have 70 wins.

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Thread:

The Tigers beat the Rockies yesterday 9-1, to complete a 3 game sweep. The Rockies are 55-94 with 13 games left, 10 against - By mgaelster September 14, 2026 at 07:57:12 AM
- Don't the Rockies have about a 97% chance of losing at least 100? - By Paul September 14, 2026 at 08:52:43 AM
- They’ve stepped it up now that they are statistically out of the playoffs. Fire Hinch.* - By Lodz September 14, 2026 at 07:58:23 AM
  - the Tigers continue to only win by blowout and only lose nailbiters* - By DoctorD September 14, 2026 at 08:22:58 AM
    - Thus creating the biggest differential to the Pythag predictive run diff formula that I can remember - By Rich September 14, 2026 at 08:32:10 AM
      - Example: the rest of the Central Division - By Rich September 14, 2026 at 08:34:19 AM
        
        The 1993 Mets won only 59 games while their Pythagorean record was 73 wins - By Paul September 14, 2026 at 08:58:48 AM

The Victors

Thus creating the biggest differential to the Pythag predictive run diff formula that I can remember