Call that 3 points (it might be closer to 1 or 2 actually, but I ran the what-if for scenarios where we were 3 pts and 7 pts better). (m)
fwiw, the standard deviation for preseason vs end-of-season sp+ ratings last year was something like 8.6 pts, so there's a decent chunk of uncertainty. and of course connelly's model doesn't capture everything, vegas is higher on the team for their reasons.
however, 10-2 or higher is real tough to see even in the rosy scenarios. we need oregon and ohio state to also eat some shit.
however, 10-2 or higher is real tough to see even in the rosy scenarios. we need oregon and ohio state to also eat some shit.
Thread:
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This team is (a) way better than last year's team and (b) likely to have a worse record. (m)
- Maybe M is good enough to beat a few good teams, not just the ones they’re supposed to beat…*
- B1G scheduling is a joke. Penn St. has a MAC schedule.*
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They need robustness versions of these, where you can tweak ratings and see the impact on win projections.*
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That's easy to do for one-offs (and tbh it wouldn't be hard to build a web app for it either), any specific views (e.g., UM a touchdown better) you're curious in seeing? (nm)
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Offense 20th to 14th, because PSU is 14th. ST from 113th to 65th (average of previous years).*
- Call that 3 points (it might be closer to 1 or 2 actually, but I ran the what-if for scenarios where we were 3 pts and 7 pts better). (m)
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Offense 20th to 14th, because PSU is 14th. ST from 113th to 65th (average of previous years).*
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That's easy to do for one-offs (and tbh it wouldn't be hard to build a web app for it either), any specific views (e.g., UM a touchdown better) you're curious in seeing? (nm)
- 9-3 is the floor. Fuck the schedule, this is Michigan *
- Tough schedule*