No, there is never certainty

Posted on August 13, 2026 at 11:24:39 AM by Rich

I am saying there is good reason to believe we can beat OU and IU, and the lesser teams as well. We may not but good teams find a way. We struggled with Iowa in 2019 but we won, for example. But even if we lose one of those, it's also not a given that we lose at OSU and UO.

I guess it depends on how good we think the team is. I think we have a lot of talent and a good staff. Others may think we have holes.

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Thread:

you know where you can find some really elite opponents and great football games? - By Nikos August 13, 2026 at 10:34:19 AM
- 100% correct* - By mtb August 13, 2026 at 10:49:36 AM
- 24 team playoff. If your team is ranked lower than 24th you probably don’t care if they play after November. * - By jhamm August 13, 2026 at 10:47:20 AM
- OOC schedules should feature elite opponents. That’s entertaining and if you win those games - By brick August 13, 2026 at 10:38:53 AM
  - would you prefer 7-5 with “great games” and an empty January to an easy September and CFP berth? * - By Nikos August 13, 2026 at 10:42:22 AM
    - Michigan plays one real OOC opponent (OU) this year. You’re talking about the difference between 8-4 and 7-5 - By brick August 13, 2026 at 10:49:04 AM
      - The chances we lose one of our non-IU/Ohio State/Oregon games in B1G play is very conservatively 50% (assumes we're a touchdown better than we are today, a top 8ish SP+). (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:59:06 AM
        
        To who? None of the other 8 games is scary at all. We'd have to underachieve* - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 11:08:44 AM
        
        Iowa and Penn State are both preseason top 25. You can't just assume that there is almost no chance that we lose to one of them. (nm) - By GritsGoBlue August 13, 2026 at 11:20:46 AM
        
        One of the other 6 games. You can’t just round 90% win probabilities to 100%. Shit happens. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 11:11:47 AM
        
        Especially in the White House.* - By ftb August 13, 2026 at 11:19:46 AM
        
        Taking away the 2017 year with QB injuries, our non OSU conference losses under Harbaugh - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 11:19:13 AM
        
        So we should be expected to win all of these games with 100% certainty? (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 11:20:24 AM
        
        No, there is never certainty - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 11:24:39 AM
        
        Speaking for myself, it's less about us and more about how freaking good Ohio State and Oregon (and IU/OU to a lesser extent) are. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 11:27:30 AM
    - Michigan should not be fielding a 7-5 team against any schedule unless beset by major injuries* - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:43:55 AM
      - we have gone 7-5 many times * - By Nikos August 13, 2026 at 10:45:17 AM
        
        Aside from RR and Hoke, we have not had 5 losses in the reg season since 1984. We did go 7-4 in 11 game slates in - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 11:07:15 AM
        
        We went 7-5 the season after winning the national title. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 11:19:41 AM
        
        I guess I subconsciously rolled Moore in with RR and Hoke. We do not lose 5 with Bo, Mo, Carr, Harbaugh and hopefully not Whit* - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 12:58:39 PM
    - No. But for this season, I like the super-tough schedule. Let's learn about Whitt & co.* - By ftb August 13, 2026 at 10:43:42 AM
- And against Ohio State, the hardest ongoing opponent we could be locked into nationally. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:35:33 AM

The Victors

No, there is never certainty