The Victors

Maybe I am hung up more on the 14/15 arc, but I see them as related.


1) First of all, we were 13th in the CFP in 2015. That was in the 4 team CFP world, but we WERE a CFP contender in 2015. Without the flukiest of losses on the MSU punt play, that team is 10-2 regular season and easily in a 12 team playoff. (Heck last year's team was 18th with a 12th rated SP+ defense).

2) The 2014 team was 5-7, and improved to 9-3 (plus the bowl win). But it really could have should have been 10-2. If we see half of that improvement in 2026, we should be in the CFP. If last year was an 8-4 team with a real schedule (we did play at OU though), a couple games gets us to 10-2. We are only asking for a 1 game actual bump from the 9-3, which may be all that is possible with the tougher schedule.

3) The 2014 team was even worse that we realize. It was 5-7, but completed a 7-13 run. The 7 wins were App State, IU twice, NW twice, Miami of Ohio and the night game vs PSU. The 13 losses included some truly dreadful performances:
-blowout loss to ND
-blowout loss at home to Utah
-blowout loss at home to Minnesota
-2 blowout losses to MSU
-blowout loss to KSU in the bowl
-home loss to Nebraska
-home loss to Maryland
-loss to Rutgers.

The 2014 team entering 2015 was truly dreadful and the improvement was even greater than the 4-5 game improvement appeared to show.

4) We may have been a weaker 9-3 last year but we did win games on the road at NW, Maryland, MSU and Nebraska and beat a good Washington team. As noted above, 2014 beat nobody (nor did late 2013). 2025 was a very young team and should be primed for a lot of improvement even if the old staff was here.

5) I will reiterate that the schedule does include 8 home games.


In summary, I do agree that the 2026 team could improve in 2027 to a 2016 type level but that team was 6th in the nation in the CFP. I am not expecting 6th this year. But I don't think it's unrealistic at all to be a top 12 team. There is just not that much improvement needed.