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Probabilities are continuous. We are favored by less than a field goal against OU. It's functionally a coin flip. (m)

Posted on August 19, 2026 at 04:52:40 PM by suede

Trevor was right on when he reminded us of the tenor before last year's OU game. We've got tools that can help us understand the shape of the schedule - let's use those (while making sure to note they're not infallible) to set expectations instead of making comparisons to things that happened over a decade ago.

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Thread:

Disagree with the 15/16 arc in the podcast... - By Rich August 19, 2026 at 04:38:08 PM
- The crux of the issue is that you can be the 12th best team and still end up 8-4 because of the schedule being so tough, especially on the top end. (nm) - By suede August 19, 2026 at 04:43:15 PM
  - I think the schedule whining is a bit overdone. We have 8 games we should win, and 4 tougher games - By Rich August 19, 2026 at 04:49:49 PM
    - Probabilities are continuous. We are favored by less than a field goal against OU. It's functionally a coin flip. (m) - By suede August 19, 2026 at 04:52:40 PM
      - Again part of the reason for the early season lines is assuming IU is going to be as good (unlikely) and the OU spread is impacted by our loss there last year... - By Rich August 19, 2026 at 04:59:16 PM
        
        IU will be incredibly elite. Maybe not crush everyone on way to NC but likely a tier above Michigan* - By harbaughdyssey August 19, 2026 at 07:07:50 PM
        
        The Big Ten guys were saying that IU's DLine is one of the best they've seen in the last 20 years. I don't know how Cig does it but he has it* - By 6p August 19, 2026 at 06:30:30 PM
        
        1. IU is roughly a touchdown worse than last year in SP+. 2. I don't the OU spread is informed by last year's game. I think it's informed by (a) the sportsbooks' own power ratings and (b) to a lesser extent, money from the public that moves the lines. (nm) - By suede August 19, 2026 at 05:01:29 PM
        
        I think we will beat OU pretty handily* - By Rich August 19, 2026 at 05:08:41 PM
        
        Inshallah. (nm) - By suede August 19, 2026 at 05:09:44 PM
- Yep. They are underrating our portal haul as well/impact of portal in general* - By harbaughdyssey August 19, 2026 at 04:41:44 PM

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