As sabermetrics has developed more and more over the last 40 years, one of the most dramatic trends has been the devaluation of stolen bases to nearly zero

Posted on September 22, 2026 at 03:58:19 PM by GlassOnion (edited September 22, 2026 at 04:00:07 PM)

Stolen bases had a huge rage in the Seventies as many teams (almost all NL teams) moved into cookie cutter ashtray stadiums with artificial turf.

These stadiums depressed home run rates and highly favored the running game, ie stolen bases. Therefore SB attempts skyrocketed, in the 1970-1990 era, paced by record setters like Rickey and Tim Raines, but also others including Eric Davis.

Since then most teams have moved to urban retro parks with much shorter fences and natural grass.

Sabermetric analysis has pretty much decided that if you're not going to be safe at an 80% rate, SB attempts are a waste of time. This is in keeping with the "three true outcomes" philosophy. WAR formulas have adapted to this thinking and stolen bases have been devalued in the calculation formulas.

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Thread:

Vernon Wells: The more I see of WAR, the more I’m convinced the algorithm was NOT made by someone of color* - By stormhit September 22, 2026 at 02:55:30 PM
- As sabermetrics has developed more and more over the last 40 years, one of the most dramatic trends has been the devaluation of stolen bases to nearly zero - By GlassOnion September 22, 2026 at 03:58:19 PM
  - To piggyback on this the best runners in MLB, not just the fastest, but best baserunners, might be able to accumulate +8 runs a year, at absolute best, this is roughly .8WAR. It's just really fucking hard to add a lot of value running - By Daytripper September 22, 2026 at 04:58:26 PM
  - I might tweak that to say, analytics showed that the value of a stolen base is dwarfed by the negative value associated with a baserunning out - By brick September 22, 2026 at 04:38:54 PM
  - that's why they changed the rules to make stolen bases much easier last year and saw a large bump in the total number of steals - By DoctorD September 22, 2026 at 04:20:31 PM
- I could have told you so 55 years ago * -- Edwin Starr - By GlassOnion September 22, 2026 at 03:43:52 PM
- The Temptations agree.* - By ftb September 22, 2026 at 03:39:47 PM
- Lol. Somebody should show Wells Ozzie Smith’s bWAR* - By brick September 22, 2026 at 03:03:49 PM
  - What is bWAR? Black WAR?** - By xcheck September 22, 2026 at 03:15:26 PM
    - There are two mainstream WAR formulas, the one Baseball Reference uses and the one Fan Graphs uses. FG's is fWAR, B-Ref's is bWAR* - By Daytripper September 22, 2026 at 03:16:45 PM
      - Is there a dWAR for Dominicans?** - By xcheck September 22, 2026 at 03:19:46 PM
        
        gWAR is both WAR for Greek players and a heavy metal band with outlandish costumes* - By brick September 22, 2026 at 03:32:35 PM
        
        Lol* - By jjwalker September 22, 2026 at 05:31:53 PM
        
        Seldom used. Eric Karros and Milt Pappas. Thats about it** - By xcheck September 22, 2026 at 03:38:46 PM
        
        Gus Triandos, Nick Markakis.* - By Ev September 22, 2026 at 04:42:12 PM
        
        I assume Youkilis is the career leader being the Greek God of Walks and all that* - By DoctorD September 22, 2026 at 03:43:17 PM
        
        Actually not Greek, despite the nickname.* - By Ev September 22, 2026 at 04:42:55 PM
        
        I know, it was a joke. My sarcasm font was missing* - By DoctorD September 22, 2026 at 07:54:10 PM
  - Or Rickey's* - By Daytripper September 22, 2026 at 03:08:37 PM
    - Or Tim Raines' WAR. (nm) - By GritsGoBlue September 22, 2026 at 03:18:40 PM
- Well Vernon, if you could have played a better CF you'd be a lot higher. Guy was a notorious train wreck in the OF even in his good hitting seasons* - By Daytripper September 22, 2026 at 02:58:11 PM
  - 104 career OPS+. Average.* - By MasterBates September 22, 2026 at 03:02:58 PM

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As sabermetrics has developed more and more over the last 40 years, one of the most dramatic trends has been the devaluation of stolen bases to nearly zero