For better or worse, the consolidation of most elite programs into two conferences has made schedules harder, which is a good thing. Texas is preseason #6 and they are projected at 8.2 wins because they have the hardest schedule in the country. If they were still in the Big XII, then their projection would probably be two wins higher, even with the early game against Ohio State. Every team at 11-16 is an SEC or Big Ten team that is projected between 7.2 and 7.9 wins because they all play tough schedules.
The teams that have easier schedules are the ones outside of the big two conferences (Miami, Texas Tech, and Notre Dame) along with Penn State, which has an embarrassing OOC schedule and then the easiest possible Big Ten schedule.
Also, the highest rated team outside of the Power Four is Boise State at #49. The Portal has emptied out the Group of Five. The AAC's commissioner pointed out that 78% of the guys on their all conference teams from last year are gone because they either graduated or transferred.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/49593338/final-preseason-college-football-sp+-rankings-takeaways-2026