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My central point is that a team's record is not reflective of its actual quality because of how lopsided schedules are now. An 8-4 Michigan team could very well be better than multiple at-large teams that get in due to materially weaker schedules. (nm)

Posted on August 13, 2026 at 10:34:19 AM by suede

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Thread:

Bill Connelly's preseason SP+ projections are out. He has Michigan at #15 with 7.5 wins projected. - By GritsGoBlue August 13, 2026 at 10:05:58 AM
- What do the books have us at? Thought someone said o/u 8.5. I trust Vegas above all* - By LewisBullox August 13, 2026 at 10:43:01 AM
  - most books have under 8.5 wins at roughly -165 to -175 right now and over 8.5 wins at +130 to +140* - By DoctorD August 13, 2026 at 10:57:03 AM
- Despite the eight home games, it does project out to be a pretty brutal schedule ... - By Cutter August 13, 2026 at 10:31:04 AM
- Extremely smart scheduling from Warde to make sure we minimize our chances of making the playoff. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:10:26 AM
  - Wasn't there aot of bitching and moaning when Michigan dropped the UCLA series a handful of years ago? - By Cutter August 13, 2026 at 10:35:20 AM
    - Do you know Warde in real life? I understand Bates has a thing for him, but I suspect you are biased by your personal friendship with Warde* - By Poster P August 13, 2026 at 10:37:09 AM
      - No, don't know him at all... - By Cutter August 13, 2026 at 12:39:08 PM
  - I love it. Great teams schedule and beat great teams.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:13:48 AM
    - Will you commit to buying Cheez-It Bowl tickets when we finish 8-4 with a statistical profile superior to multiple teams in the CFP? (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:15:08 AM
      - If you lose 4 games with only 4 road games, you aren't that good anyway* - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:19:36 AM
        
        But a first or second round loss is worth seeing crap football all season long. What don’t you get Rich?* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 11:08:33 AM
        
        Maybe I don't care that much at this point. That could change* - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 11:25:56 AM
        
        What if we lost those games early because our team is young and our coach is new? And then we are looking really good with close losses @Oregon and @OSU? Could do some damage in the playoffs but we helped schedule ourselves out of it* - By mtb August 13, 2026 at 10:53:17 AM
        
        Close losses at OSU and Oregon = second round loss. No thanks. - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 11:14:14 AM
        
        Completely disagree. We could have close losses in those games and actually be equal to or better than those teams, who are both favorites to make semis or finals* - By mtb August 13, 2026 at 02:04:06 PM
        
        Maybe, but we shouldn’t be absolving fat Warde for the own goal. He fucks everything up* - By Poster P August 13, 2026 at 10:22:44 AM
        
        The B10 schedules rotate evenly over a period of years except for protected rivals. Last year was pretty easy for us.... - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:43:15 AM
        
        We could very well be 8-4 and end up top 8 in SP+. The Oregon and Ohio State games are incredibly hard. Indiana and Oklahoma are coin flips. Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State aren't gimmes. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:22:40 AM
        
        So second round loss? Is there a meaningful difference between that and the San Diego County Pointsetta Bowl?* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:28:04 AM
        
        Is that a serious question? * - By Nikos August 13, 2026 at 10:31:03 AM
        
        Yes, I enjoy watching good football.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 11:05:32 AM
        
        Yes. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:28:25 AM
        
        I’d personally rather see better regular season games. 8-4 means we are not a good team. Win games.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:30:10 AM
        
        Do you watch the NFL? A good NFL team can be 8-4. similar concept here* - By KeiTh August 13, 2026 at 12:26:24 PM
        
        That sounds like shit to me. B1G schedule is hard enough.* - By crumbs August 13, 2026 at 10:35:17 AM
        
        I don't think you understand how B1G expansion and lopsided schedules work together. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:32:34 AM
        
        I don’t think you understand that great teams win games.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:37:03 AM
        
        You are the dumbest poster on this board. Congratulations. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:38:34 AM
        
        Alas, the name calling. When you can’t make a point.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 11:00:51 AM
        
        You are dumb. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 11:01:41 AM
        
        I’ll pray for you my friend. Get help.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 11:06:14 AM
        
        Does kurt still post?* - By Poster P August 13, 2026 at 10:43:04 AM
        
        At some point you have to find a way to win games. - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:27:07 AM
        
        That's the thing - if we had a slightly easier schedule, we'd have the opportunity to be in the playoff!!! (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:28:14 AM
        
        At 9-3 I can agree w you and if we have a great profile we should lobby like hell. But at 8-4, you are basically saying - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:30:29 AM
        
        My central point is that a team's record is not reflective of its actual quality because of how lopsided schedules are now. An 8-4 Michigan team could very well be better than multiple at-large teams that get in due to materially weaker schedules. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:34:19 AM
        
        At the end of the year if we have a case as one of the top 12 regardless of record, we should lobby and maybe somebody else will make the case as well. Again - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:36:24 AM
        
        Counterpoint: being in the playoff isn’t really all that special anymore with the expanded field* - By Poster P August 13, 2026 at 10:29:45 AM
      - At 8-4 we would project to a first or second round loss in the playoffs? - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:19:04 AM
        
        “win games and it doesn’t matter” is a vote for softer scheduling not harder * - By Nikos August 13, 2026 at 10:23:03 AM
        
        edit* - By DoctorD August 13, 2026 at 10:56:00 AM
        
        If you don’t enjoy watching football, than you are correct.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:26:00 AM
        
        Cheez-It Bowl - are you in? (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:26:29 AM
        
        I barely watched the playoffs last year until the last few games. Not that excited about 5-12 games* - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:29:05 AM
        
        Well, I'm not sure what to say other than your preferences are not held by the nation at large (see: viewership numbers) and that CFP participation is the new benchmark for a good season. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:31:35 AM
        
        Same in hoops, and teams that play tougher schedules are rewarded. If we don't think football will do the same - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:45:25 AM
        
        It's much easier to get into March Madness than it is the CFP. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:46:34 AM
        
        Second round loss? Potato potato* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:28:44 AM
        
        second round opponent would be an SEC team, Cheez-It opponent would be UCF or something. Aren’t you a good opponent maximalist? * - By Nikos August 13, 2026 at 10:33:36 AM
      - 😅* - By ameriKa August 13, 2026 at 10:16:22 AM
  - Can you make this post in a new thread? No way Matty B tries to venture into a thread about SP+ projections* - By BBA August 13, 2026 at 10:13:29 AM
    - Hey, leave me out of this.* - By mattb August 13, 2026 at 10:36:14 AM
  - We will have the #1 strength of schedule. But I think schedule is overplayed... - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:12:34 AM
- Opening SP+ is just adjusted prior season final SP+ - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:07:56 AM

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