Despite the eight home games, it does project out to be a pretty brutal schedule ...

Posted on August 13, 2026 at 10:31:04 AM by Cutter

It's no wonder P4 teams are thinking about lightening their non conference schedules as long as there's a 12-team CFP with no consistent strength of schedule measure considered by the selection committee.

It makes you wonder if USC will look back at the 2026 thru 2029 seasons and thinks it's a good idea to play Notre Dame for four years starting in 2030. Texas apparently is thinking about dropping their home-and-home with the Irish because of CFB's rather bizarre post-season setup.

Of course, this changes to different degrees if the CFP expands to 16 or 24 teams. The problem, of course, is that the B1G, the SEC and their media partners can't get out of their own way. So I assume schools are going to assume 12 teams going forward when it comes to OOC scheduling.

Still no word on Michigan beyond the game at Texas next year (except for the home-and-home in 2033/4 with Notre Dame). Will the new AD and Willingham want to keep the current "sandwich" set up with two minor opponents being played before and after a major program? Or does the Maize-and-Blue embrace its "inner Cignetti" and play three body bag games before conference play? I have a feeling Fox Sports, CBS and NBC will have a say in this.

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Thread:

Bill Connelly's preseason SP+ projections are out. He has Michigan at #15 with 7.5 wins projected. - By GritsGoBlue August 13, 2026 at 10:05:58 AM
- What do the books have us at? Thought someone said o/u 8.5. I trust Vegas above all* - By LewisBullox August 13, 2026 at 10:43:01 AM
  - most books have under 8.5 wins at roughly -165 to -175 right now and over 8.5 wins at +130 to +140* - By DoctorD August 13, 2026 at 10:57:03 AM
- Despite the eight home games, it does project out to be a pretty brutal schedule ... - By Cutter August 13, 2026 at 10:31:04 AM
- Extremely smart scheduling from Warde to make sure we minimize our chances of making the playoff. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:10:26 AM
  - Wasn't there aot of bitching and moaning when Michigan dropped the UCLA series a handful of years ago? - By Cutter August 13, 2026 at 10:35:20 AM
    - Do you know Warde in real life? I understand Bates has a thing for him, but I suspect you are biased by your personal friendship with Warde* - By Poster P August 13, 2026 at 10:37:09 AM
      - No, don't know him at all... - By Cutter August 13, 2026 at 12:39:08 PM
  - I love it. Great teams schedule and beat great teams.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:13:48 AM
    - Will you commit to buying Cheez-It Bowl tickets when we finish 8-4 with a statistical profile superior to multiple teams in the CFP? (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:15:08 AM
      - If you lose 4 games with only 4 road games, you aren't that good anyway* - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:19:36 AM
        
        But a first or second round loss is worth seeing crap football all season long. What don’t you get Rich?* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 11:08:33 AM
        
        Maybe I don't care that much at this point. That could change* - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 11:25:56 AM
        
        What if we lost those games early because our team is young and our coach is new? And then we are looking really good with close losses @Oregon and @OSU? Could do some damage in the playoffs but we helped schedule ourselves out of it* - By mtb August 13, 2026 at 10:53:17 AM
        
        Close losses at OSU and Oregon = second round loss. No thanks. - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 11:14:14 AM
        
        Completely disagree. We could have close losses in those games and actually be equal to or better than those teams, who are both favorites to make semis or finals* - By mtb August 13, 2026 at 02:04:06 PM
        
        Maybe, but we shouldn’t be absolving fat Warde for the own goal. He fucks everything up* - By Poster P August 13, 2026 at 10:22:44 AM
        
        The B10 schedules rotate evenly over a period of years except for protected rivals. Last year was pretty easy for us.... - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:43:15 AM
        
        We could very well be 8-4 and end up top 8 in SP+. The Oregon and Ohio State games are incredibly hard. Indiana and Oklahoma are coin flips. Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State aren't gimmes. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:22:40 AM
        
        So second round loss? Is there a meaningful difference between that and the San Diego County Pointsetta Bowl?* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:28:04 AM
        
        Is that a serious question? * - By Nikos August 13, 2026 at 10:31:03 AM
        
        Yes, I enjoy watching good football.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 11:05:32 AM
        
        Yes. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:28:25 AM
        
        I’d personally rather see better regular season games. 8-4 means we are not a good team. Win games.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:30:10 AM
        
        Do you watch the NFL? A good NFL team can be 8-4. similar concept here* - By KeiTh August 13, 2026 at 12:26:24 PM
        
        That sounds like shit to me. B1G schedule is hard enough.* - By crumbs August 13, 2026 at 10:35:17 AM
        
        I don't think you understand how B1G expansion and lopsided schedules work together. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:32:34 AM
        
        I don’t think you understand that great teams win games.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:37:03 AM
        
        You are the dumbest poster on this board. Congratulations. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:38:34 AM
        
        Alas, the name calling. When you can’t make a point.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 11:00:51 AM
        
        You are dumb. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 11:01:41 AM
        
        I’ll pray for you my friend. Get help.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 11:06:14 AM
        
        Does kurt still post?* - By Poster P August 13, 2026 at 10:43:04 AM
        
        At some point you have to find a way to win games. - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:27:07 AM
        
        That's the thing - if we had a slightly easier schedule, we'd have the opportunity to be in the playoff!!! (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:28:14 AM
        
        At 9-3 I can agree w you and if we have a great profile we should lobby like hell. But at 8-4, you are basically saying - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:30:29 AM
        
        My central point is that a team's record is not reflective of its actual quality because of how lopsided schedules are now. An 8-4 Michigan team could very well be better than multiple at-large teams that get in due to materially weaker schedules. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:34:19 AM
        
        At the end of the year if we have a case as one of the top 12 regardless of record, we should lobby and maybe somebody else will make the case as well. Again - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:36:24 AM
        
        Counterpoint: being in the playoff isn’t really all that special anymore with the expanded field* - By Poster P August 13, 2026 at 10:29:45 AM
      - At 8-4 we would project to a first or second round loss in the playoffs? - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:19:04 AM
        
        “win games and it doesn’t matter” is a vote for softer scheduling not harder * - By Nikos August 13, 2026 at 10:23:03 AM
        
        edit* - By DoctorD August 13, 2026 at 10:56:00 AM
        
        If you don’t enjoy watching football, than you are correct.* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:26:00 AM
        
        Cheez-It Bowl - are you in? (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:26:29 AM
        
        I barely watched the playoffs last year until the last few games. Not that excited about 5-12 games* - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:29:05 AM
        
        Well, I'm not sure what to say other than your preferences are not held by the nation at large (see: viewership numbers) and that CFP participation is the new benchmark for a good season. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:31:35 AM
        
        Same in hoops, and teams that play tougher schedules are rewarded. If we don't think football will do the same - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:45:25 AM
        
        It's much easier to get into March Madness than it is the CFP. (nm) - By suede August 13, 2026 at 10:46:34 AM
        
        Second round loss? Potato potato* - By Lodz August 13, 2026 at 10:28:44 AM
        
        second round opponent would be an SEC team, Cheez-It opponent would be UCF or something. Aren’t you a good opponent maximalist? * - By Nikos August 13, 2026 at 10:33:36 AM
      - 😅* - By ameriKa August 13, 2026 at 10:16:22 AM
  - Can you make this post in a new thread? No way Matty B tries to venture into a thread about SP+ projections* - By BBA August 13, 2026 at 10:13:29 AM
    - Hey, leave me out of this.* - By mattb August 13, 2026 at 10:36:14 AM
  - We will have the #1 strength of schedule. But I think schedule is overplayed... - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:12:34 AM
- Opening SP+ is just adjusted prior season final SP+ - By Rich August 13, 2026 at 10:07:56 AM

The Victors

Despite the eight home games, it does project out to be a pretty brutal schedule ...